FIGURING THE FUTURE

By Schmoel Yitzhak

For many years during the 1940s one of the most common novelties in
American stores was called a "ouija board."

Its promise was simple enough; by moving ones hands across the
lettered panel with a special device one could discern the future.

Like the magician's crystal ball and tea leaves read by a "reader,"
results from the "ouija" were debatable at best and having the
approximate prediction value of messages in Chinese fortune cookies.

With Yom Kippur upon us and the arrival of our New Year, predicting
the future of the Middle East is both fascinating and useless at the
same time.

Then, again there are certainties:

* VALUE OF A FENCE: Following the last intifada Israel's leaders came
to the conclusion that terrorist acts emanating from the Arab side
could be useful. A fence was erected and the results have been better
than Jerusalem could have dreamed. Now it appears that threats from
the Egyptian Sinai have inspired the Netanyahu government to erect a
protective fence there as well. As they say in Tel Aviv, "That's a
no-brainer!"

* A TWO-STATE SOLUTION: Every day in every way leaders of Hamas and
the Palestinian Authority can be guaranteed to deliver a direct or
oblique attack on Israel. It could be the Abbas' United Nations threat
or some blather from Hanan Ashwari. As for the vitriol from Gaza; it
assure that there never will be a two-state solution since the boys
from Gaza want only one -- Jew-free!

* AMERICAN ELECTION: Ever since he entered the White House, Barack
Obama has managed not to visit Israel. Do not for a minute overlook
the significance of that omission. Despite a succession of unfriendly
moves aimed at Benjamin Netanyahu the Democratic candidate has
retained a substantial bloc of Jewish voters. He also has a lead in
the polls. Mitt Romney clearly would do more favors for Israel if
elected but, somehow, the latter's campaign has done little to
stimulate confidence in a Republican victory.

* CONTAINING IRAN: Over the past view years, Israel's attitude toward
Tehran is reminiscent of a fighter "shadow boxing" in the ring while
delivering no substantive blows. Meanwhile the mullahs aim to
construct a nuclear arsenal moves full speed ahead despite sanction
after sanction. Unless I'm missing my guess, the shadow boxing will
continue, ad nauseum, with no Israeli-generated attack against the
nuclear facilities. The bottom-line is that Uncle Sam won't allow it.
Unless of course the next White House resident is named Romney!

* SYRIA: Here's where a sardonic laugh is in order, directed at
virtually every journalistic sage. For months now the so-called media
wise men and women have predicted the fall of Assad. The Damascus
defections notwithstanding, The Mad Dictator has managed at least to
preserve power and enough of the armed forces to maintain his
leadership. The failure of Washington, Paris, London, or the European
Union to facilitate a solution will remain status quo ante.
Translated:
the bloodshed will continue into the thousands.

* EGYPT: The Muslim Brotherhood's annexation of Israel's onetime ally
is as ominous as I figured it would be when it happened. Have no
illusions, Egypt will stir the Palestinians to new levels of
Israeli-hatred.

That's just for starters but it's enough to digest -- and throw-up -- for now!

THE IMPENDING STORM

By Simon Fischler 

I’m not one for predicting doom, certainly not when it comes to the fate of Israel.

On the other hand Israel never before has been confronted by a doom-inspiring American President who so egregiously distorts the term “Ally” when it comes to aiding the Jewish State.

Take the impending storm launched at Teheran as Exhibit A.

Iran is speeding towards nuclear armament; there’s no question about that. The question is clear -- will the ayatollahs have a bomb tomorrow the next day or next month?

No one knows for certain how far along that evil empire has progressed on its nuclear journey toward eventual Islamic dominance!

Leon Panetta, the White House Defense Secretary, certainly does not know although he absurdly claims that he does. Nor do the usually reliable Israeli intelligence agencies. 

This is the frightening reality. Period!

The pervasive problem with intelligence is blatantly clear; it only goes so far. Most importantly, it is what a nation does with that knowledge after receiving it that counts! 

The Obama Administration constantly has proven how poorly it understands Middle-Eastern intelligence.  That helps explain the avoidable death of American Ambassador Christopher Stevens in Libya! 

Iran’s ally, Hezbollah, is in a weakened state. Meanwhile the combined Iranian-Hezbollah ally, Syria, is burning through a civil war conflagration with no end in sight. 

Through this whole ugly mess, the Obama Administration sits and waits.

But for what?

If anything, Washington has been betraying one of the most ineffectual American foreign policies in world history! 

What better evidence than the fact that Jihadists have infiltrated the Syrian conflict because of American indolence.

Along with Jihadists fighting alongside the Sunni Muslim rebels, Iran and Hezbollah  acknowledge putting boots on the ground to militarily prop up the Assad regime.  

(Also, consider Russian/Chinese support for Assad. You can bet that Hosni Mubarak would have welcomed such bolstering from his American Brutus, Obama).

Every nation with a significant stake in the Middle East’s future has joined this Syrian poker game with one exception, the Good, Old, USA -- the country that most needs to be involved. 

With those situations in mind, what options does Israel possess?

SIMULTANEOUS PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN!

That might sound like irrational, military adventurism yet it would be right out of the book of one of the greatest armies in modern history! The IDF of the 1950s and 1960s. 

It’s evident that Israel cannot count on America. The Obama Administration has nothing close to what is needed vis-a-vis Iran, Hezbollah and Syria! 

Furthermore Israel has history to help determine its actions.

American President Dwight Eisenhower promised Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion that America and its Western allies would force open the Straights of Tiran if Egypt tried to blockade them to Israeli shipping. 

This promise was given to Ben-Gurion after America nudged Israel out of the Sinai Peninsula right after it crushed Egypt in the Sinai Campaign of 1956! 

This fallacy of that American promise was underlined when Gamal Abdel Nassar kicked United Nation peacekeepers out of the Sinai in 1967. 

This led to an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Egypt and Syria and what we now call the Six Day War. 

In June 1981, Israel was ignored by a world refusing to handle Saddam Hussein and his hopes for nuclear weaponry therefore, Israel carried out Operation Opera; successfully destroying the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak! 

Fast forward to August 2007. 

Israeli intelligence hands over hard evidence collected by Israeli special forces of a Syrian Nuclear reactor built almost identically to that of North Koreas Plutonium Reactor (clearly not for peaceful use in North Korea). Some pictures of the reactor collected by the Israeli special forces had North Korean scientists in them!  

One would have believed that Uncle Sam, orchestrated by a relatively friendly-to-Israel Bush regime would bomb the Syrian reactor! 

No way.

Hence, Israel’s Operation Orchard, carried out September 6, 2007, destroying the Nuclear reactor completely.

One pervasive issue comes to mind: Israel must do what it has to when it comes to ensuring its survival and that of the Jewish Nation.

It never can become a South Korea or South Vietnam which depends on America to do its fighting! 

Israel’s survival depends on deterrence. 

Now more than ever Benjamin Netanyahu must approve a strike at Iran and Hezbollah.

Such a pre-emptive move would accomplish plenty for the civilized world.

It also would remind Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood and the rest of the Sunni Jihadists that Israel and the Jewish Nation are not to be trifled with!