Tuesday, May 17, 2016
The Next War
⚜The Duke of the North⚜
The next war with Hezbollah is right around the calendar....maybe even this spring.
All of the major pundits are saying that Hezbollah has too much going on and too much to loose.
Many say Hezbollah can't afford a fight with Israel because of how deeply stuck in the Syrian mud it is.
Well, the pundits are right.
But the same could have been said about Gamal Abdel Nassar and his Egypt of 1967 (basically living off American food imports).
Certainly the same could have been said about Arafat and the Palestinians in 2000.
At the time the Palestinians were the richest of all Arabs.
They certainly wouldn't waste what they had gained and would sign a peace treaty with Ehud Barak bringing about a Palestinian state, right? Wrong!
Because Hezbollah is so deeply stuck in the Syrian mud, losing its best soldiers (just this week Mustafa Badreddine was eliminated, he was the equivalent of Hezbollah's Chief of Staff in Syria) in an endless war to prop up Bashar al-Assad.
Because of this it needs a war with Israel more than ever.
Really, Hezbollah is no longer propping up Assad. Hezbollah is de-facto running its own mini Shia state in Syria.
What Hezbollah has set up for itself is akin to what the PLO had created in Lebanon and Jordan during the late 60's and 70's, the Americans in South Vietnam and the Israeli Security belt.
But Hezbollah is bleeding even worse.
Really Hezbollah needs a way out --- now.
Problem number one here is saving face.
Hezbollah needs a way out that will theoretically save its pride. It needs to limp out of Syria without looking like a dog with its tail between its legs.
The only way Nasrallah can see doing this is by starting a fight with the Jews.
Like many leaders before him Sheik Hassan Nashrallah is living in the past.
Nashrallah still thinks he is living in the time period between 2000 and 2006, when Hezbollah was at its peak.
Then it was possible for the Sheik to win over the Sunni Arab street by starting a war with Israel.
But Nashrallah is no longer living in 2006 and the Sunni street sees Hezbollah and its leader as worse occupiers than Israel.
With 500,000 dead, the use of chemical weapons used against their "Arab Brothers", Hezbollah has managed to place itself on the terror list not just of the USA and the EU but also of the Arab league.
Worst of all, Hassan Nasrallah is still the same leader who failed in 2006 to understand "THE WHAT" in what Israel will do in retaliation for any attack from the Lebanese snake.
He has not matured, nor has he gained a knowledge of military theory better then he did back in 2006.
While Nasrallah himself clearly said, that if he knew what the Israeli reaction would have been in 2006 (a war that destroyed much of Lebanon and brought Beirut back to the dark ages) he would have never targeted the Israeli Reserve soldiers patrolling the border that day.
But, because he has not matured as a leader he will make the same mistake. And he will make this mistake just to protect the pride of Hezbollah. It makes no difference to the good Sheik if this war brings Lebanon crumbling down beside him.
As I have written before, it is saddening to know that this is a probable outcome. It is sad to know that young IDF soldiers will lose their lives fighting the Shia equivalent of ISIS, to protect the freedom of the Jewish Nation.
Sadly for Lebanon 2006 will appear nice. The IDF has made it clear, it will lay waste to Lebanon.
The greatest point of sadness; the people of Lebanon and the people of Israel have far more in common than they have to disagree and fight about.
For too long the world, the United Nations and other international bodies that are supposed to be fighting for the weak have let the good people of Lebanon, a whole country worth of people, be held hostage by a terrorist organization. They've done this even after the Security Council voted to have Hezbollah disarmed!
The people of Lebanon are at the mercy of Hezbollah, and like ISIS Hezbollah treats those underneath it as slaves, mere booty for the cause or fodder for the Shia mission. Hezbollah's internal politics and the terrorist groups adventurism with Israel has continually brought ruin down upon Lebanon.
Long ago, the United Nations should have stopped these despicable and fascist actions by Hezbollah.
The only positive outcome of this possible war would be Hezbollah losing all the power it has gained since 2006.
The major negative of this possible "small regional war", it could very well lead to World War Three.