Report after report coming out of almost every respectable Near East foreign policy think tank is predicting another war between Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran.
In short, it does not take much to predict another war occurring; it is all but a given, thanks to the colonialist aspirations of Iran and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is not a Lebanese militia, nor is the organization fighting in defense of Lebanon.
Hezbollah is an Iranian trained and funded militia. Hezbollah fights strictly for the benefit of Shia Iran and her leaders. Iran is determined to force war on Israel, especially as heat on its nuclear weapons program becomes more intense.
Hamas, too, has left all its Sunni character for Iranian Shia money and support. Hamas does not fight for the Palestinians, nor does it hold their interest close to its heart.
When war does break out between the IDF and Hezbollah (that’s where I see it starting) Syria, Hamas and Iran will probably become involved, using the excuse of defending Lebanon, Hezbollah and their Arab brethren.
No matter what, if war does break out it will be on a major level involving many different fronts for Israel.
What I do not understand is the hopeless outcome all these well-seasoned brain vaults are predicting for Israel.
Nearly all agree Israel will start its reprisal for whatever Hezbollah does to initiate the war by waltzing up to the northern border well announced, then walk straight into a turkey shoot.
This, however, is quite contrary to what the writing on the IDF training walls say.
When this war is initiated by Israel’s enemies (war will only be initiated by the Arabs), she will be ready diplomatically -- something these academics do not grasp.
Israel has learned a lot from not being prepared for war diplomatically in the past. I do not see this happening again.
Israel has already gone to great lengths to expose Hezbollah’s intentions by offering up intelligence photos and videos of the organization’s hostile buildup in South Lebanon.
One might think Israel was foolish to offer up such meaty info for the public to see, especially with the possibility of jeopardizing the resources that got it. On the other hand, it has now been proven that Hezbollah is preparing for war against Israel.
The importance of this intelligence made public by Israel is that Hezbollah is doing all of this in direct violation of UN resolution 1701.
I also find the gloomy conclusions given by many on Israel’s chances of victory as false and outdated.
War is never predictable and will always toss of few curveballs into the mix.
The IDF has gone to great effort to prepare for these curveballs and there must be no doubt that the IDF has prepared for many different scenarios presented by a multi-front war.
Hezbollah is also no longer the small, light-but-effective guerilla militia it was in the 80’s and early 90’s. Today’s Hezbollah is more like an army than a militia and it can be fought against like an army. This will not be a guerilla action against a modern army, as has been the dilemma in modern warfare, from Vietnam to the present.
Expecting the IDF to just seize southern Lebanon up to the Litany is an unrealistic presumption.
The IDF will make deep brigade incursions, and at least one marine landing probably in the middle or north of Lebanon. There will also be incursions deep into the Beqaa Valley.
Unfortunately, the only assumption most thinks tanks have gotten right is the devastation this will bring to Lebanon. Israel will not engage in another small war with Hezbollah and now that Hezbollah sits in the government, Israel will make all Lebanon accountable for its actions.
Syria and Iran will be forced to join the conflagration, because all the chest-beating and rhetoric they have been bleating against Israel in the world press. The Syrians will definitely make use of their large stockpiles of Scud-B missiles and probably, if they have them, Scud-C missiles.
The real question is if the Syrians would be stupid enough to tip them with chemical weapons. If, by some seriously misguided thought, the Syrians and Iranians do chose to go the route of chemical or even possibly biological weapons, all bets are off and the probability of an Israeli nuclear response is high.
If this does happen I would put my money on Damascus and Tehran being a bad real-estate investment for the next ten to twenty years.